ESPN Fantasy and Paris analysts5 minute read
What happened to AD in Game 2?
Brian Windhorst and CJ McCollum explain what went wrong for Anthony Davis and the Lakers in Game 2.
The ESPN Fantasy Basketball and Basketball Betting Cheat Sheet is your pre-game destination for basketball betting predictions and our best news and data, complete with Power Index ESPN’s proprietary basketball player (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and betting decisions. Saturday, May 6 NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Saturday’s matches
A rivalry-rich Saturday slate begins with the Miami Heat hosting the New York Knicks in an afternoon game of legendary rivals. While this series isn’t as controversial as the late 1990s matchups between these teams, it was a fierce defensive battle, as the 209.5 point total suggests.
That doesn’t mean we should tone down this game based on a suppressed offense, but rather some value play in order to pay for the cost certainty of Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle in the DFS lineups. Periphery key players such as Gabe Vincent and Josh Hart stand out with this coveted combo of low price and intriguing projections.
The classic LeBron James and Stephen Curry rivalry takes place in prime time Los Angeles and once again my model loves the specter of results for Draymond Green as well as his passing props. It also looks like Anthony Davis needs to bounce back from a modest line in Game 2, especially since he has the potential for nearly 40 minutes in a game that will demand his inside score and rim protection.
–Jim McCormick
break the slate
New York Knicks at Miami Heat
Game 3: 3:30 p.m. ET, series tied 1-1
Records (against the spread)
Knicks: 47-35 (45-35-2)
Heat: 44-38 (30-49-3)
Double: Heat (-4) Total: 209
BPI projection: 5.3 Knicks
Money line: Knicks (148), Heat (-175)
Injury Report:
Knicks: Jericho Sims, (OUT – Shoulder)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD – Back); Haywood Highsmith, (GTD – Knee); Jimmy Butler, (GTD – Ankle); Tyler Herro, (OUT – Main); Victor Oladipo, (OUT – Knee)
Note: BPI counts players who are kicked out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Knicks +4.0. Take the Knicks underdog on the road. Despite the injuries, Brunson and Randle were outstanding in Game 2. They had success against the Heat’s zone defense in Game 2, and with potential tweaks, Game 3 is going to be interesting, especially if Jimmy Butler returns. . The Knicks are 28-18-1 ATS on the road and 25-18-1 ATS as underdogs. -Eric Moody
Best bet: Jalen Brunson with over 29.5 points + assists. In the 2023 playoffs, Brunson averaged 25.0 points, 4.7 assists and 38.3 minutes per game. With this playing time, it will probably exceed 29.5 AP. The Knicks used plenty of ball screens to create chances for Brunson, and he even became the first Knicks player since Carmelo Anthony in 2013 to score 30 points in a playoff game at Madison Square Garden in Game 2. Brunson will remain a key New York player in Game 3. -Moody
Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers
Game 3: 8:30 p.m. ET, series 1-1
Records (against the spread)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Lakers: 43-39 (39-41-2)
Double: Lakers (-2.5) Total: 228
BPI projection: Lakers by 2.5
Money line: Warriors (122), Lakers (-145)
Injury Report:
Warriors: Patrick Baldwin Jr., (GTD – Toe); Andre Iguodala, (OUT – Wrist); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Foot)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Foot); LeBron James, (GTD – Foot); Mo Bamba, (GTD – Ankle)
Note: BPI counts players who are kicked out but assumes GTD players will play
Stephen Curry over 5.5 assists. In the Game 2 win, the Warriors may have unlocked their offense by executing more pick-and-rolls with Curry as the primary ball handler, prompting 12 assists. The Lakers may have a Game 3 fit, but there’s not much you can do against a top talent. Bettors use stats all season long for this prop, but I think Golden State’s new approach adds value. -Doug Kezirian
Best bet: Stephen Curry on 36.5 points + rebounds. In the playoffs, Curry averaged 31.4 points and 4.9 rebounds. However, in the first two games of this series, he averaged just 23.5 points and 5.0 rebounds. Although the Warriors struggled on the road, this is Curry’s chance to shine. In Curry’s career, he averaged 27.2 points and 4.8 rebounds in Game 3. He’s at the top of his game right now. -Moody
Best bet: Klay Thompson on 4.5 three-pointers. Curry and Thompson each made at least 40 three-pointers in the Warriors’ first nine playoff games. Thompson has hit that prop in back-to-back games, and his hot streak from beyond the arc looks set to continue against a Lakers team that relies heavily on the deuce. With a personal connection to Los Angeles, Klay Thompson has added motivation to deliver a masterful performance in Game 3. -Moody
Best bet: LeBron James with over 26.5 points. James will have plenty of rest for Game 3 as he was taken out of Game 2 at the start of the previous game due to the Warriors’ dominating performance. James scored 22 points in Game 1 and 23 in Game 2. The Warriors made adjustments heading into Game 2 and the Lakers need to adjust heading into Game 3. Given the Lakers’ desire to avoid taking late in the series, James should deliver a vintage performance. . -Moody
