NBA picks, best bets: Joel Embiid’s thumb injury is impacting his shot; West teams should heat up from deep

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Featured Game | Toronto Raptors vs. philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid attempted eight 3-pointers in Game 3 of this series. Afterward, he came out that he was dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb. In the past two games, he’s combined to take just five 3-pointers, and he’s missed all five. Embiid is admirably playing through the pain right now, and he can still be quite productive, but it doesn’t seem like he’s especially comfortable shooting from distance. The pick: Embiid under 1.5 3’s

Featured Game | New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns

One of these days, these teams are going to start making 3’s again. We’re at a combined 43-of-161, 26.7 percent, over the past three games. I picked the over in Game 5 precisely for this reason, and now, the books are giving up another 1.5 points here. If they continue their ice-cold shooting? So be it. I’d just rather bet on teams that shoot as well as these two do to turn it around than expect a lengthy cold streak to continue. The pick: Over 214

Featured Game | Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks

Look, there are a lot of totally valid reasons to clown the Jazz right now. Their perimeter defense remains a disaster. They’re in line for yet another humiliating postseason loss. But in Game 5, they at least managed to generate the right kind of shots. Amazingly, Dallas held Utah below 30 3-point attempts in each of the first three games. The Jazz are finally back above that line, having taken 65 in the past two games… they just aren’t making them. They’re 13-of-65, a ghastly 20 percent from behind the arc, in those contests. Again, there’s plenty of reason to pick against the Jazz, but shooting isn’t typically one of them. Both sides struggled from the outside in Game 5. Basic regression should favor offense in Game 6 when you consider how vulnerable Utah’s defense is. The pick: Over 209.5

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