Little ceiling space for UFAs like Kane

After looking at what it would take for Rangers to re-sign their top restricted free agents on Wednesday, let’s turn our attention to the unrestricted group.

There are five UFAs that finished the season on the list, including four in New York as of the trade deadline. Were they acquired purely for rental? Or will there be a return next season?

The circumstances of the Blueshirts salary cap will be prohibitive. They will enter the summer with a forecast of $11.76 million to occupy approximately eight spots on the roster. And, as we’ve pointed out before, a big chunk of that will likely go to their two key RFAs, striker Alexis Lafrenière and defender K’Andre Miller.

Will there be enough left to keep one of the five UFAs? Maybe one, at most two or three, but it is possible that the lack of financial flexibility prevents team president Chris Drury from bringing some back.

Free agency prospects:Alexis Lafrenière and K’Andre Miller headline the RFA class

Based on conversations with several people familiar with free agent situations, as well as research on recent contract trends, here is our best insight into the state of affairs with each player.

Jaroslav Halak

After a slow start to his first season with the Rangers, the veteran keeper has bounced back. He was as dependable as you could ask for a substitute who only played once a week at 10 days, posting a 10-9-5 record with a .903 save percentage and a goals-against average of 2.72. It’s more impressive when you consider that he started the season 0-5-1 and then reversed it to finish 10-4-4.

In an ideal scenario, Drury would like to get Halák back. He just turned 38, but keeps himself in excellent shape and has shown himself capable of succeeding in a limited role. A source told lohud.com, part of the USA TODAY Network, that he intends to keep playing and go after 300 career wins, with only five more needed to reach the milestone.

Whether or not he pursues this pursuit in New York depends on the level at which he is willing to accept his salary. The cap-strapped Rangers probably can’t afford to match the $1.5 million Halák earned last season.

Would he settle for anything less to stay in a familiar setting with a Stanley Cup contender? It’s possible, but there’s at least a decent chance that another team will come in with a higher offer.

The Blueshirts may have to turn to a $1 million or less veteran, who is expected to compete with last year’s third stringer Louis Domingue and top goalie prospect Dylan Garand for the backup role.

Patrick Kane

The Rangers jumped through hoops to bring one of the greatest American forwards of all time to Broadway at this year’s trade deadline, but the results on the ice never materialized as they hoped. .

A compromised Kane had his moments, with 12 points (five goals and seven assists) in 19 regular season games and a memorable three-point night in Game 2 of the opening round series against the New Jersey Devils. But in the end, the trade left the Blueshirts with redundant skills and a lack of balance in their roster.

On the day of the break earlier this month, Kane admitted he was playing despite an injury, with multiple sources saying it was hip related. He also said he may need surgery this summer, which could delay his availability to start the 2023-24 season.

This throws a huge wrench into his first summer as an unrestricted free agent. One source believes that increases the likelihood of a one-year contract, which could be attractive for a team that already has a slew of long-term commitments on the books, like Rangers. But estimates on what it might cost are all over the place.

No one expects Kane to approach the $10.5 million average annual value of his expiring contract, but what’s a fair price for an aging star who will recover from injury and whose production dropped ?

Some have suggested $5 million. Others believe it could be half of that, which would certainly have to be the case for Rangers to even consider it.

At the time of the trade, there were rumors about both parties hoping they could make it work beyond this season. And while Kane reiterated that desire on the day of the break – “I wish I was back,” he said – he was also realistic about the position the Blueshirts find themselves in.

“I know they have young players to sign and probably other priorities,” he added.

Although Kane has expressed interest in returning for his 35-year-old season, there are serious doubts as to whether Drury is willing (or able) to create the cap space to make it happen. If he were to clear money, the belief is that it would aim to add speed, forechecking and grit – none of which are assets for Kane.

Unless his price tag drops so low Rangers can’t say no, it looks like the No.88’s stay in New York will be brief.

Niko Mikkola

One of four additions to the trade deadline heading into unrestricted free agency, the 27-year-old helped solidify Rangers’ bottom pair while rising in a pinch when top-four defender Ryan Lindgren had to miss time due to a shoulder injury.

The numbers are not obvious, with a 47.72% xGF, 2.7 xGA / 60 and 29.12 SA / 60 in 31 games with the Blueshirts, according to Evolving Hockey. It should be noted, however, that virtually all of these stats represent improvements over other left-handed defenders who have been used in this role, namely Libor Hájek, Ben Harpur and Zac Jones.

Mikkola provides very little offensively, as evidenced by his six points (one goal and five assists) in 81 total games between New York and St. Louis this season. But Rangers value the 6-foot-4, 209-pounder for his length, toughness and aggressive closing style in defensive situations.

Do they like it enough to allocate some of their precious cap space to bring it back? Mikkola thinks he’s asking for a $1.9 million AAV raise this season, which is probably too rich for a third pair defender given the current circumstances.

Both sides are believed to have some interest but Rangers may have to settle for a cheaper option who could rival Harpur and Jones for the spot.

Tyler Motte

Of all the UFAs on this list, Motte seems to have the best chance of re-signing.

Clearly Rangers see him as a solid element in their roster, otherwise Drury wouldn’t have sacrificed assets on back-to-back trade deadlines to add him twice. There now seems to be a mutual desire to make this a more permanent arrangement.

They tried to find a solution last summer, but the Blueshirts were facing a similar crisis and decided not to match a modest $1.35 million one-year offer from the Ottawa Senators. They’re hoping for a different outcome this time around, something Motte seemed optimistic about on the day of the breakup.

“I just had my meeting with Chris, and it was a good dialogue,” he said earlier this month. “I think he knew what he was getting from me and I knew what was expected. Just being comfortable, I think, goes a long way. It’s a great city. It’s great place to play. It’s one of the best buildings in the sport – if not the best – and it’s a great group of guys. It checks a lot of boxes for a place you want to play. Be here twice and to see the similarities through that and know what this room is capable of, just to be part of it again would be special.”

The 28-year-old profiles as the type of player Rangers need most, with his speed, hustle and intangibles adding elements that this group of attackers otherwise lack.

His presence immediately improved their fourth row, but it is believed that his non-stop engine could be useful further up the range, if needed. A source drew the comparison to former Ranger and current Hurricane Jesper Fast, who didn’t rack up a ton of points but thrived in the 2019-20 season while doing the dirty work on the wing opposite of Artemi Panarin. The stats also indicate that Motte is one of the team’s best penalty takers, with his goals-against average of 4.71 PK per 60 minutes ranking the best among forwards. He was the only forward to play at least 10 minutes shorthanded and was off the ice for any goals against in the playoff series against the Devils.

These are all reasons to bring it back, with signs that both sides are trying to make it work. The key question will be how much Rangers are willing to budget to do it – and is that number enough for Motte to say yes?

Vladimir Tarasenko

Perhaps the longest comeback chances belong to Tarasenko.

It’s not because Rangers wouldn’t like him back. In fact, he would be in a better position than Kane to become the best right winger on their depth chart. But it’s expected to be the most expensive UFA on this list, which will almost certainly take it out of New York.

At 31, Tarasenko probably hasn’t reached the point in his career where he would accept a significantly reduced salary to stay. He may not land the $7.5 million AAV he earned this season, but it’s hard to see him falling below $5 million. Short of a trade or buyout that frees up significant cap space, the Blueshirts are in no position to consider this type of deal.

It’s a shame because he seemed to be enjoying his run in New York and was highly respected in the dressing room.

“It’s a really good group of guys and people,” he said on the day of the breakup. “My family and I were very well taken care of. I can’t say a single bad word about my stay (here).”

He didn’t tally huge numbers, with 21 points (eight goals and 13 assists) in 31 regular-season games with the Rangers. But he added much-needed shooting threat while showing understated strength and physicality to get into tough areas. This showed in the playoffs, with three goals in the first round.

Little ceiling space for UFAs like Kane

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