2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds, start time, surprising picks, race predictions: Model fading Chase Elliott

With three relatively flat corners and three extremely long straightaways, Pocono Raceway is a test unlike any other on the NASCAR schedule. With the regular season winding to a close, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to “The Tricky Triangle” on Sunday. The 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 is the only NASCAR at Pocono race of the season for the first time since 1981. The 2022 NASCAR at Pocono Raceway green flag drops at 3 pm ET on Sunday on USA (stream now on FuboTV).

Joe Gibbs Racing has won seven of the last nine NASCAR Cup Series races at Pocono and Kyle Busch is the 6-1 favorite in the 2022 Pocono NASCAR odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Denny Hamlin is just behind him at 13-2 while Martin Truex Jr. is at 10-1 and Christopher Bell is 17-1 in the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds. Before scouring the 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Pocono picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship .

In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed his lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 leaderboard.

Top 2022 NASCAR at Pocono predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he’s a 12-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Blaney is winless on the season, but enters Sunday’s race sitting third in the NASCAR standings. That would get him into the NASCAR Playoffs, but with 14 different winners now on the season, margins are getting thin.

However, Blaney should be confident heading back to Pocono Raceway, where he won the 2017 Pocono 400. The 28-year-old has finished 12th or better in 10 of his 12 career Cup starts at Pocono and has also won there in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. He’s been sixth or better in four of his last six races and led lapses in 16 of his 20 starts so far this season. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values ​​in the 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation starting grid. The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion sits with a comfortable 67-point lead atop the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series standings and has finished first or second in the last four races of the season.

However, while Pocono Raceway is regularly compared to a road course because of its enormous emphasis on braking, Elliott hasn’t fared nearly as well there as he has on road courses in his career. He’s wonless in 12 career starts at “The Tricky Triangle” and has finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five starts there. That includes a 27th-place finish in the most recent race there and two other finishes of 25th or worse. See which other favorites to avoid here.

How to make 2022 NASCAR at Pocono picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 2022? And which long shot makes a run at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR at Pocono odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 odds, field

See full NASCAR Pocono picks, best bets, and predictions here

Kyle Busch 6-1
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Chase Elliott 15-2
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Ross Chastain 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Joey Logano 15-1
Alex Bowman 15-1
Christopher Bell 17-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Daniel Suarez 28-1
Chase Briscoe 28-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
Brad Keselowski 50-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Ricky Stenhouse 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Noah Gragson 300-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Todd Gilliland 2500-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1

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